The Taiwan Strait Crisis Induced by China’s Emergence as a Global Capitalist Power
Since U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the Republic of China (Taiwan) in August 2022, the threat posed by the People’s Republic of China (China) through large-scale military exercises has intensified. The Trump administration approved a record-breaking arms sale totaling approximately $11.1 billion in December, 2025. Simultaneously, the Lai Ching-te administration in Taiwan announced an additional special defense budget of roughly $40 billion over eight years until 2033. Backed by economic growth through global capitalism, the defense spending of Chinese government has doubled over the past decade. The traditional nationalist state perspective on “Taiwan's reunification” as the “nation's long-cherished aspiration”—evolved from the Cold War structure (transitioning from US-Soviet confrontation to peaceful coexistence, and from Sino-Soviet conflict to US-China rapprochement)—has remained unchanged and indeed intensified. Yet the fundamental shift in the Taiwan Strait crisis lay in the military expansionist course brought about by China's emergence as a global capitalist power.
Counter-Military Forces of Japan, the US, and the Philippines
Conversely, centered around Taiwan, a US-led expansion of deterrence against China continues in Japan, Okinawa (US military presence), and the Philippines. Particularly under the "Don-Low Doctrine" (transactional isolationism) of the second Trump administration, East Asian nations are being pressured not only to purchase American weaponry but also to bolster their own domestic military forces. In Japan, while the reinforcement of US and Self-Defense Forces (SDF) bases in Okinawa has progressed since 2010, there is a movement toward authorizing armed attacks on foreign soil—a concept left ambiguous since the post-war era. Amidst such circumstances, necessitated by the requirement to provide logistical support for US forces deployed in the event of a hypothetical “Taiwan contingency”, Japan—particularly the Okinawa Islands (which extend into the waters near Taiwan)—is witnessing the expansion of Self-Defense Forces missile bases and US military bases for the first time since the end of the war.
All Japanese left-wing factions, including ourselves, oppose the reinforcement of US and SDF bases in Okinawa. However, many anti-war peace movements and leftist parties have persisted in the argument that the "Taiwan issue is an internal Chinese affair" and that there should be no intervention in the Taiwan Strait.
In Taiwan, with the exception of certain pro-China leftists and intellectuals, civil society—including many social movements—remains confined within the framework of the Democratic Progressive Party administration's pro-American, one-sided “deterrence theory” in response to China's growing military threat.
Counterpose Internationalist Class War Against Inter-Imperialist War
We have consistently called for international class unity for socialist revolution within the antagonistic imperialist states, rather than pinning our hopes on “disarmament” or “peaceful coexistence” since the days of old imperialism. The current situation is extremely severe, particularly given that China's emergence as a military power has been achieved through immense and severe exploitation of the new proletariat within China and of the natural environment. and that the “Reform and Opening Up” from the late 1970s, which launched China's capitalist rise, was propelled by the collusion between the international bourgeoisie of Taiwan, Japan, the United States, and China's bureaucratic regime. Therefore, the only basis for transforming the current situation in East Asia, which is heading towards unstoppable military expansion, can only be the unity of the international proletariat in China, Taiwan, Japan, the United States, and elsewhere.
Furthermore, while linking the anti-war and peace movements long fought across East Asia on an international level, international efforts are needed to raise the voice of opposition to their own governments' initiation of war amongst the oppressed working people within China. Criticism should be voiced not only against Japan-US military exercises, but also against China's encirclement military exercises targeting Taiwan. However, should China launch a military attack on Taiwan, this would clearly constitute an assault by a major power upon a smaller nation. We therefore support the Taiwanese people's right to self-determination, condemn any Chinese attack, and endorse the Taiwanese people's right to defend themselves – or at the very least, we do not oppose it. Yet we also call upon the people of Taiwan to exercise this right prudently and wisely, to confine it strictly to Taiwan's defense, and to maintain distance from America's hegemonic designs in Asia.
Resumption of approaches to Taiwan
It is necessary not only to raise voices of protest against war, but also to initiate concrete, practical exchanges within the East Asian region.
Comrades in Hong Kong and Japan have a history of attempting to connect with Taiwan's left-wing movement from the late 1990s to the mid-2000s. And now, amidst what could be termed today's “Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis”, they are once again beginning to reach out to Taiwan. This included the release of a ‘Preliminary Thesis on the Taiwan Strait Crisis and the Taiwanese People's Right to Self-Determination’ by Hong Kong comrades in July 2025. Furthermore, in Comrade Omori's ‘Takaichi Administration's Two Months’ at the end of 2025, it was stated that ‘the Taiwanese people's right to self-determination has historical justification, and discussions of easing tensions or achieving peace in East Asia cannot proceed without acknowledging this fact.’
Practices and Challenges of Concrete Exchange
Concrete exchanges at the regional level are also beginning to take root. For instance, Japanese comrades have participated alongside Okinawan friends in struggles against US military and Self-Defense Force bases in Okinawa. As an extension of this, they have joined peace camps initiated by Okinawan comrades for the anti-base peace movement involving Taiwan, South Korea and Okinawa, attending those held in 2023 (Okinawa) and 2025 (Taiwan). Peace Camp itself is centered on pacifist civic activists and is non-partisan, but the Taiwanese organizers, faced with China's military threats, appear to be seeking responses that are not strictly pacifist. Such exchange programs between Japan and Taiwan offer scope for free discussion and mutual understanding, and we should participate with humility.
Overseas Chinese living in Japan have also actively engaged in Japanese social and anti-war movements since the late 2022 "White Paper Revolution" (the social backlash against the Chinese government's coercive COVID-19 policies), and have consistently participated in the Peace Camps in Okinawa, Korea, and Taiwan. These individuals from the mainland are critical of Chinese government policies and sympathetic to Okinawa’s situation and Taiwan’s right to self-determination. However, while tensions between the Japanese and Chinese governments deepen, it is important to note that Chinese government-affiliated NGOs promoting “peaceful reunification” are also beginning to strengthen “civilian exchanges” with Okinawa's anti-war peace movement.
Strengthening our solidarity in this region, particularly with activists inside Taiwan and China, has never been more vital. At the end of October this year, a Peace Camp will be held in Okinawa. Let us continue to exchange with our comrades in Taiwan, China, and the Philippines through every available opportunity.
February 2026