Statement of the Executive Bureau of the Fourth International
The first round of Brazil’s presidential election, on October 4, was marked by a resumption of the far right’s electoral offensive at the end of Lula’s third term. With 47.03% of the vote to Lula’s 45.16%, Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round, with an advantage of more than two million votes. The far right also advanced in Congress and in the states: Bolsonaro’s party won 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (out of 513) and became the leading force in the Senate.
The results confirm the entrenchment of the most radical sector of the far right (Bolsonarism) four years after the defeat of Jair Bolsonaro, who is now imprisoned for his role in a 2023 coup attempt. However, they also reflect a deep crisis within the Brazilian political system—particularly at the highest levels of the judiciary, which is mired in privilege and allegations of corruption, with several members implicated in a scandal involving ties to a fraudulent banker. Since the Supreme Court had previously played a progressive role in curbing Bolsonaro’s excesses and prosecuting his attempted coup, segments of the public came to associate the Court with the government, leading them to reject both. Moreover, Lula’s moderate, conciliatory policy failed to meet popular expectations, feeding a discontent that the far right knew how to exploit by presenting itself as an anti-system force.
The Bolsonaro clan’s project—a mafia-like family originally tied to criminal militia circles in Rio de Janeiro—rests on an alliance among the most ultraliberal, antidemocratic segments of agribusiness, banks and financial funds, big commerce, industrialists, and ultraconservative religious currents, with a base among part of the armed forces’ lower officer ranks and members of the militarized police. It combines an economic program of violent cuts to social rights and to the rights of workers, women, and LGBT+ people with an offensive against democratic freedoms and the environment, especially in the great biomes of the Amazon and the Cerrado.
What is at stake goes far beyond Brazil. Donald Trump, who is stepping up his interference in Latin America and has been managing to elect allies from Central America to the far south, intends to find in Flávio Bolsonaro a first-rate ally. The clan’s victory would endanger the sovereignty of Latin America’s largest and most strategic country and threaten the region as a whole.
The first reactions from the half of the country that does not want the Bolsonaros back show that Brazilian society is not resigned. In the first days of the month, thousands of high school and university students demonstrated against fascism in large and medium-sized cities. Lula’s campaign regained engagement on social media. Movement leaders and left-wing legislators, including those elected from the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL) and their supporters, are organizing the “turn the vote” brigades on streets and in neighborhoods, taking part in rallies and urging those who abstained to vote for Lula.
The struggle of the Brazilian people against the far right, for social rights, for freedoms, and for independence from U.S. imperialism is also ours. At this moment, to ensure that there is no rollback—so that workers, youth, Black and Indigenous peoples, and all oppressed Brazilian women keep their right to fight and to speak out, and have a chance to prevent Brazil’s submission to Washington—our battle is for Lula’s reelection.
October 25: Lula for president!
October 12, 2026